Insights

Research you can check.

Frameworks we actually use, research we publish with its limitations, and memos on what the market is pricing. Every number has a source; every claim has a caveat.

Deep HRP

Deep HRP: Teaching Hierarchical Risk Parity to Learn

Our research replaces HRP's frozen clustering and bisection with a differentiable tree that can be trained end to end, and holds it to an evidence standard built to resist flattering noise.

October 17, 2026 · 6 min read

Deep HRP

Hierarchical Risk Parity, Explained

How a 2016 idea from machine learning sidesteps the most fragile step in portfolio optimization, and what it quietly assumes along the way.

Oct 14, 2026 · 6 min

Frameworks

The Amador Framework: Five Questions Before Any Position

Before any position earns capital, we ask what would prove it wrong, what is priced in, how its payoff is shaped, how it fits, and how to size and exit it.

Oct 12, 2026 · 8 min

Deep HRP

How to Read a Backtest Like a Skeptic

Probabilistic and Deflated Sharpe Ratios, backtest-overfitting tests, multiple seeds, and ten quiet bugs that make strategies look better than they are.

Oct 10, 2026 · 6 min

Signals

Reading Options Flow Without Fooling Yourself

Unusual options activity is easy to find and hard to interpret; this is how we read it, what the research supports, and where our own screen falls short.

Oct 8, 2026 · 8 min

Frameworks

Four Economic Seasons: A Regime Map for Portfolios That Hold Up

Growth and inflation, each rising or falling, define four economic seasons, and a portfolio built to hold up balances its risk across all four instead of betting on one.

Oct 5, 2026 · 8 min

Signals

What Insider Buying Does (and Doesn't) Tell You

Open-market purchases by executives and directors are among the most studied signals in public markets, but the evidence is narrower than the folklore and the filings reward careful reading.

Sep 30, 2026 · 8 min

Risk

Position Sizing: Treat Kelly as a Ceiling, Not a Target

The Kelly criterion marks the point beyond which more risk only destroys growth. Estimation error, correlation and drawdowns are why sensible sizing sits well below it.

Sep 28, 2026 · 8 min

Markets

Prediction Markets as Macro Signals

Event-contract prices can be read as probabilities, with care. We show how to convert them, where they mislead, and when they say something rates markets do not.

Sep 21, 2026 · 8 min

Briefings

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